KLS Arete Macro

Arete have held a cautious view on the China outlook for much of 2023, a view that started to play out in May following data which showed that: 1) housing remained a drag on growth; 2) the consumption led recovery lost momentum; and 3) private sector capital expenditure remained weak. From today's starting point they anticipate further weakness in high-frequency and macro data and this is likely not only cyclical but also structural in nature. While remaining cognisant that the government could use additional easing measures, policy makers have so far acted with 'significant restraint' on delivering large-scale stimulus at the expense of the long-term health of the economy. In developed markets, Arete see more evidence of a potential structural rise in neutral rates, as macroeconomic data continue to be very resilient. Coupled with a tight labor market in the US, this appears to corroborate the Fed’s “higher for longer” rates expectations.